| By The Numbers: Francis As a Core Player Authored by Marten Liebster - May 13, 2005 - 2:17 am
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M-W.com: "a central and often foundational part usually distinct from the enveloping part by a difference in nature"
Recently, I started a topic asking our board posters who did they consider to be the core. This referred to the players the team should build around for the next couple of years. Just about all respondents said they'd include Dwight Howard, who was a no-brainer pick, considering the kind of a player this kid could become. Most would also include Jameer Nelson in that group, but a good number of posters decided to exclude Francis. Hedo omission was probably a result of the "out of sight out of mind" outlook.
In the relatively short time I've been a poster on the Magic board, a lot has been discussed about about Francis. During the season, quite of few people bemoaned his amount of turnovers. Curiously enough, many of the same posters were silent when he had games like the one against the Knicks on 3/4 - 9 assists and 2 TO. But that's a completely different article all together.
Throughout the season people have been impressed with little Jameer's progress. Many cheered when he was moved into the starting lineup following the All-Star break. He went on to start 21 games, 17 of which were alongside Francis.
Recently, ORL pleaded with me... well maybe not pleaded, he begged me... ok, ok he mentioned in passing that I should write an article using the stats I've collected. So, I started out gathering stats to prove the arguments I wanted to make.
But in looking over the stats, one thing started to stand out to me: in the games they both started in the same backcourt, the numbers of Francis and Nelson were strikingly similar. Despite my original intentions, this has become the basis of this article.
The stats shown below were gathered and parsed out from the ESPN.com play-by-play data. They only cover the 17 games when both Francis and Jameer started.
One way a PG's performance is measured is through the Assist-to-Turnover ratio. Interestingly enough, during those 17 games when they started together, Nelson and Francis both averaged 1.8 assists per turnover.
Player Assists (% of team) Turnovers (% of team)
Jameer 4.7 24% 2.5 17.6%
Steve 6.7 35% 3.5 24.4%
Speaking of the dreaded turnover (to be referred to as TO), the percentages of the type of TOs were similar as well.
Type Jameer Steve
Bad Pass 61% 55%
Lost ball 22% 14%
TO 14% 21% (no type specified)
Traveling 2% 8%
Another way to measure the impact they had on the team is scoring. For the sake of comparison, I've added Dwight's numbers, as well.
Player PPG (% of team) FGA (% of team)
Jameer 15 16% 12 15%
Steve 19 20% 16 20%
Dwight 14 15% 9 12%
There were a few similarities in the types of shots they attempted. Of all field goals attempted by both players, 44% of them were categorized as Jumpers, and about 10% of them were "Driving Layups." Steve had a few extra categories of points scored which Jameer doesn't generally do in-game - Tip Shot, Slam Dunk, Driving Dunk and Dunk. Another difference was that 27% of Jameer's shots were from beyond the arc, whereas 3 point attempts made up on 7% of Steve's shots.
When the time winds down in the 4th quarter, with less than 5 minutes to go (referred to as "Crunch Time" in the table below), Steve has really stepped it up while Jameer... well, I'll let the numbers speak for themselves. Yet again, I've included Dwight's numbers for the sake of comparison (and he has been quite impressive). These stats are for field goals only:
Player Crunch Time Rest of 4th Quarters 1 thru 3
Jameer 7 of 24 - 29% 9 of 23 - 39% 89 of 167 - 53%
Steve 13 of 25 - 52% 12 of 29 - 41% 92 of 228 - 40%
Dwight 6 of 10 - 60% 11 of 15 - 73% 75 of 143 - 52%
Steve's rebounding ability has always been pretty good. Not surprisingly, this year many of his rebounds went to Dwight. Over that 17 game span, he grabbed 4.6 per game, which made up 11% of the teams rebounds. Let's compare that to little Jameer - per game: 4.5; percent of team's rebounds: 11%. This one really surprised me!
What does this all mean? Here's my angle on it, which I'm sure many will disagree with.
All of the stats listed in this article show that Nelson is part of the core, both now and hopefully for a long time to come. Just recently he was voted on the "got milk? NBA All-Rookie Second Team." His fellow core member Dwight Howard has been unanimously been selected to the first team. Had Hedo been healthy at the end of the season, many more would include him in their core.
Jameer's game has progressed nicely in his rookie season. But, he has only started for 21 out of 82 games. Steve's been putting up his numbers for several years, including all this past season. Jameer wasn't really given a chance really to run into the rookie wall like Dwight was.
Player Min/G when both start Min/G other times
Jameer 37.5 13.2
Francis 39.0 37.9
In a year or two, if Nelson continues at the pace he's going, he'll be a quality PG. However he is still unproven for long periods of time. To become a true "floor general," he needs a lot more game time playing alongside the starting lineup.
The talk about Francis not passing to Howard is hogwash. Of all the assists given to Dwight, 34.7% came from Steve, followed by Hill at 17.9% and with 13% was Jameer.
Steve's contract is locked in until 08/09 season. I'd like to keep him around at least until the 07/08 season starts. At that time we'll have a big expiring contract to deal - according to HoopsHype.com $16,440,000 in 07/08 and $17,180,000 in 08/09. There are always teams looking for a player and personality like Francis.
The biggest knock on Steve is that he's turnover prone. I am certain that with a new coach and a real offensive scheme, Francis will be able to cut down on his turnovers. A proper scheme will allow him to be the same type of player, but average 1 less TO per game for the season. This will bring up his assist/to value up to 2.3. That would put him in the neighborhood of the players people seem to want to trade him for.
Grant has the C on his jersey, but has not been the vocal leader. Francis is the emotional leader of the team. He's outspoken and will get on other players to improve, as well as giving them encouragement. If he were to leave, there would be a void in this area. His effect on the team in this area has been very much like the impact that Darrell Armstrong had.
Over the season, Steve Francis has time and again proven himself to be "a central and often foundational part" of this year's team, and for the near future as well. How can someone who has rankings like the following not be?
Ranks #7 in the NBA in Assists(547.0)
Ranks #7 in the NBA in Assists Per Game(7.0)
Ranks #9 in the NBA in Free Throws(499.0)
Ranks #9 in the NBA in Free Throws Per 48 Minutes(8.04)
Ranks #11 in the NBA in Free Throw Attempts(606.0)
Ranks #11 in the NBA in Free Throw Attempts Per 48 Minutes(9.77)
Ranks #13 in the NBA in Field Goal Attempts(1330.0)
Ranks #15 in the NBA in Minutes Played(2978.0)
Ranks #15 in the NBA in Assists Per 48 Minutes(8.8)
Ranks #16 in the NBA in Points(1663.0)
Ranks #18 in the NBA in Total Efficiency Points(1609.0)
Ranks #18 in the NBA in Points Per Game(21.3)
Ranks #19 in the NBA in Field Goals Made(563.0) |
