| By The Numbers: 1st Quarter Breakdown Authored by Marten Liebster - August 28, 2005 - 12:56 pm

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As the preseason approaches, our beloved team seems to be retaining what is essentially the same personnel. The only major changes this off-season have been in the front office and with the coaching staff. This has caused much grief and the pronouncement of gloom and doom by many posters. I'll leave the prognostication of this upcoming year to those more qualified than myself.
Having said that, I can offer a look back at what seems to be the same set of players and see how they performed. In the next installments of the "By The Numbers" series, I will examine the quarters of play. Since the Magic only played one extra period all of last season, I will only focus on the typical 4 quarters.
People talk about football as literally being a game of inches. In a figurative sense, the same could very well be said about the Magic last season. After 4 quarters of play, the average total point differential was a mere -2.3 points. That's just one more FG or 3 more made FTs - awfully close, especially when compared to the likes of Bobcats (-5.9), Hornets (-7.1), and Hawks (-9.8).
1st quarter stats as a team compared to our opponents:
| Stat | Magic Total | Per Game | Opponent Total | Per Game | Difference |
| FGA | 1738 | (21.19/game) | 1820 | (22.19/game) | -1.00/game |
| FGM | 818 | (9.97/game) | 846 | (10.31/game) | -0.34/game |
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.4% | +0.6% |
| Assisted FGs | 440 | (53.78% of FGs) | 473 | (55.91%) | -33 or .4/game |
| TOs | 301 | (3.6/game) | 239 | (2.9/game) | -62 or .75/game |
| Steals | 152 | (1.8/game) | 187 | (2.2/game) | -35 or .42/game |
| FTA | 433 | (5.2/game) | 462 | (5.6/game) | -0.4 |
| FTM | 318 | (3.8/game) | 340 | (4.1/game) | -0.3 |
| FT% | 73.4% | 73.6% | -0.02% |
In the opening quarter we were even in shooting the ball, holding a mere .6% FG% advantage. What did all these stats result in?
Total 1st quarter points: 2018 (24.6/game) vs 2109 (25.7/game) or down by 1.1/game
Looking at the point differential, you might think: "I remember us typically being down a bit more after the first 12 minutes." If you thought that, you'd be right.
After the first quarter of play:
- In 43 games (52%) we entered the 2nd quarter behind. In these games, the average point difference was -6.13 and our record for these games: 14-29
- In 11 games (13%) the quarter ended tied. Our record for these games: 5-6
- In 28 games (35%) we came out with a lead. The average point differential was +6.17 and our record for these games: 16-11
We started off looking at the entire team's performance, now let's look at an individual player's contributions (the "Per Game" numbers are adjusted for games played for each player).
If we were more careful with the ball, then we would probably be ahead after the first quarter of play completed.
The top 5 turnover offenders in the first quarter:
| Player | Total | Games Played | Per Game |
| Steve Francis | 82 | 77 | 1.06 |
| Dwight Howard | 51 | 82 | 0.62 |
| Grant Hill | 33 | 67 | 0.49 |
| Jameer Nelson | 27 | 78 | 0.34 |
| Tony Battie | 23 | 80 | 0.28 |
It was no surprise that the leader in this category was Francis. Undoubtedly, that is something that will be addressed by Coach Hill. With his excellent work ethic and strong desire to improve, I am confident that Dwight will work hard on his play to cut down on those TOs.
Let's see who most helped other Magic players to score in the first period.
Top 5 assisters in the first quarter:
| Player | Total | Per Game |
| Steve Francis | 167 | 2.16 |
| Grant Hill | 63 | 0.94 |
| Jameer Nelson | 56 | 0.71 |
| Hedo Turkoglu | 28 | 0.41 (67 games played) |
| Dwight Howard | 28 | 0.34 |
Once again, it is no surprise at who leads this category. It's good to see that Grant shared the ball, but it remains to be seen if Coach Hill plans on using him as a point-forward, even if in a limited role, which would undoubtedly positively affect his production in this regard.
Top 5 scorers in the first quarter:
| Player | 2PT | 3PT | FT | Total | Per Game |
| Grant Hill | 328 | 0 | 57 | 385 | 5.74 |
| Steve Francis | 288 | 36 | 83 | 407 | 5.28 |
| Dwight Howard | 260 | 0 | 58 | 318 | 3.87 |
| Hedo Turkoglu | 90 | 39 | 21 | 150 | 2.23 |
| Jameer Nelson | 122 | 33 | 5 | 160 | 2.05 |
The "Little Engine Who Could" is a child's story about an overachieving undersized locomotive. That story could be applied to Jameer Nelson, who very nearly kept up with a proven scorer in Hedo. The first quarter had the best output for Dwight. He nearly accounted for as many points as Grant Hill and Dwight's point total was greater than that of Hedo's and Jameer's combined.
We can put together these stats to get a feeling, not a scientific measure, of a player's direct impact on the team's offense: Points + (2 * Assists) - (2 * TO)
(this is using an unrealistic assumption that all TOs lead to 2 points by the opposition and all assists are for 2 pointers)
| Player | Points + Assists - TOs | Total | Per Game |
| Steve Francis | 407 + 334 - 164 | 577 | 7.49 |
| Grant Hill | 385 + 126 - 66 | 445 | 6.79 |
| Dwight Howard | 318 + 56 - 102 | 272 | 3.31 |
| Jameer Nelson | 160 + 112 - 54 | 218 | 2.79 |
| Hedo Turkoglu | 150 + 56 - 38 | 168 | 2.50 |
The big 2 players really stand out in the calculation, which makes sense as they are the veterans and the primary offensive options. The two rookies from last year had a really good showing as well. Their numbers were better those of experienced players such as DeShawn (149), Garrity (38), and Augmon (34).
1st Quarter Summary:
When we were down after the first quarter we only won 32.5% of the games, compared to 57.1% games won when we were leading. Dwight offensively excelled during the first period, he was our best 3rd option behind Hill and Francis. Jameer was also very effective and showed why many called him the "steal of the draft". We shot the ball as well as our opponents, but we didn't take care of the ball - 62% of our turnovers were the result of the ball being stolen away.
Area for improvement: Ball Handling
We turned the ball over nearly one more than our opposition. The greatest contributor to this problem was Steve Francis.
Here are his TOs broken down for the 1st quarter alone.
| Type | Total |
| Bad Pass | 45 (54.88%) |
| Lost ball | 16 (19.51%) |
| Unspecified | 10 (12.20%) |
| Traveling | 10 (12.20%) |
| Double | 1 (1.22%) |
| Traveling | 10 (12.20%) |
| Total | 82 |
Francis must improve in this regard - I feel that at a minimum he should be expected to lower them to 3.25 total per game, slightly below his career average, down from 4 per game this past season. If he would have been able to keep his TOs at that level this past season, he would have had less than the MVP from the past season.
However, being loose with the ball was not solely Steve-o's problem. The team's turnovers undoubtedly aided the opposing team to get off an average of 1 more FG attempt during the 1st quarter - remember that the average differential was only 1.1 points. Coach Hill has spoken about better ball movement which will help alleviate this problem as our PGs (all the others, except for Diener, seem to have a similar style of play) won't have to create as much for others as this past season.
Was the 2nd quarter any better? Stay tuned for the next installment of "By The Numbers."
1st quarter scoring trivia:
- The largest 1st quarter deficit was 17 against Boston on 11-29-2004, a game which we eventually lost. However we were able to overcome a deficit of 16 against the Lakers on 11-12-2004 to win the game.
- Our two best first quarters were against the Hawks with leads of 16 and 17, and we went on to win both games.
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