| "By The Numbers: With And Without Francis" Authored by Marten Liebster - December 9, 2005 - 11:35 pm
Average with him, not so good without him.
Love him or hate him, Steve Francis has proved to be an integral part of the team this season. During the 4 games without him, the team's record was 1-3.
When he plays, it is 6-7. With or without him, the team still has lots of
progress to make if they want to be taken seriously.
The player most effected by his absence was Dwight Howard. Without Francis,
teams were able to focus more attention on the young fella. Our opponents'
increased pressure on Dwight can be seen in the change in his FG%:
With - 52.5%
Without - 30.4%
Dwight also took considerably less FTs in Francis' absence: With - 7/game Without - 4.5/game
...and he has grabbed 2.3 fewer rebounds when Francis sat out: With - 13.3/game Without - 11.0/game
Not all players had such a significant drop off without Franchise in the
line up. DeShawn Stevenson FG increased 8.8 percentage points (44.2% vs.
53.0%) and Tony Battie's rose 10.7% (41.4% vs. 52.1%). Jameer Nelson's FG%
rose a mere 1.2%, from 41.9% to 43.1%, while Hedo Turkoglu's FG% was
virtually unchanged - 37.0% with Francis to 37.2% without him.
The team as a whole saw its percentages drop without him in the line up. As
a squad with Francis in the line up they shot 42.7%. Without him, it dropped to 40.1%. If
we focus purely on the 2 point shots, the drop off was 6.0% - 44.0% with and
38.0% without.
When I watched the games, it seemed as our ball movement declined without
him in the lineup. But the team's assist numbers were virtually identical
without him in the line up as opposed to him being there - 15.8 assists/game
with him vs. 15.5 without. Interestingly the team was more careless without
him there, turning the ball over 1.2 more times per game - 13.8 vs. 15.0.
The aspect that took the greatest hit without him was free throw attempts.
This should be no surprise as Francis is a slasher, which creates contact,
which leads to fouls. When he was in the lineup, the team shot an average of
27.0 FTs per game. The four games he missed, we only shot 19.75 a game.
When it comes down to it, the team that scores the most points wins. They
could have 50 TOs and 2 assists, but as long as they outscore their
opponents they get the W.
Orlando with Francis - 82.92
Orlando without Francis - 80.75
Highest output without Francis - 91 vs. Washington
Lowest output without Francis - 69 @ Memphis
Having Francis back didn't automatically result in a win against the Bulls
last night (those numbers are not included in the stats above). Getting Hill
back also won't automatically make us contenders. I really don't think that
we will see what type of team we have until the All-Star break. At that time
hopefully both Dooling and Hill will be playing, in game shape, and clicking
with the offense.
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