| RotoFreak.com: Orlando Magic Fantasy Preview Authored by Craig Huffman - October 15, 2006 - 2:32 pm
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Jameer Nelson – The exit of Steve Francis is just what the doctor ordered [for both the Magic and the heir apparent]. Jameer flourished last year in Francis' absence, leading the team to 16 wins and 8 losses when starting. He averaged 15.5 PTS, 5.5 AST, 1 STL, 50% from the field and 80% from the line during that time - all in 30 mpg. That's a rank of 60. Not too shabby. Arroyo is a more than capable backup; so, Nelson's minutes won't be particularly strong. If he can manage 5 more minutes per game at last year's production it would boost him into the top 40. We won't assume that much risk; so, we'll look for Jameer around his post-Francis value of 60. Don't wait too much later than that, though... he's on a lot of radars.
Hedo Turkoglu – Gone are the days when Hedo was just a shooter - his offensive stats are more efficient, he's passing the ball more, he's a mediocre (but no longer poor) defender, and he's a proven performer as a starter. Grant Hill is giving it another go this year and Orlando is deep at the swing spots (Redick, Bogans, Dooling and Ariza); so, Hedo's minutes aren't locked in at 35+. But, with Hill injury prone, Redick undersized and unproven, and Ariza still a little too raw for significant burn, Hedo could have 35 mpg in him. We're looking for him around the 65th pick, and think it's a value he can reach if given 33 mpg. So, it's a decent risk/reward spot for him.
Darko Milicic – Once a human victory cigar, now a promising prospect. Oh, how things can change when you actually get an opportunity to play the game. And Darko certainly made the most out of that opportunity. In 21 mpg, he averaged 7.5 PTS, 4 REB, 1 AST, 0.4 STL and 2.1 BLK. That's not the most well-rounded stat line; however, there's only a select few who can put up those kind of block numbers. Plus, he's only 21, his confidence is growing (16 PTS, 9 REB and 2.8 BLK in 31 mpg at the Worlds), he has more of an all-around game than traditional shot blockers, and his opportunity for starters minutes isn't too far away. Needless to say, we love the upside. Unfortunately, it appears that Brian Hill wants to match Dwight alongside the veteran Battie to start the year, making Darko the first big man off the bench. With Orlando having zero depth down low, 30 mpg is still possible in that role. So, based on last year's stats, 11 PTS, 6 REB, 0.6 STL and 3 BLK and a rank of 60 isn't too far fetched. His fantasy value revolves around the blocks, though... and if they're only at 2'ish per game, his value sticks closer to 100. We're looking for him right in the middle of that risk/reward, ranking him around 80. With Battie barely holding onto that starting spot (perhaps even losing it by the time the season starts), and Darko a big part of Orlando's future, we think the upside definitely warrants picking him in this range.
Grant Hill – He won't go without a fight, and although that's commendable on an NBA (and personal) level, it's more of an annoyance in fantasyland. He has value in a 12-teamer if he averages 30 mpg; however, he's 34 years old and Brian Hill will be limiting his minutes to keep him healthy. So, we'll project 25 mpg (and a rank of 150) as either the starting 2 or the first swingman off the bench. Just don't count on 60+ games.
Tony Battie – He was a top 150'ish player last year and it looks like he'll start beside Dwight; however, Darko will be cutting into his value this year. There's not a whole lot of downside, as Battie can get 25 mpg off the bench; however, that's a 50-rank drop. Since we think Darko takes on a bigger role as the season goes on, and Battie is currently battling a knee injury, we'll put him just outside the top 200.
Carlos Arroyo – The percentages are solid and he's decent on assists and points; but, no 3pt attempts, mediocre steal numbers and 20 mpg just isn't going to get it done. If Nelson goes down with an injury, we'll look for Arroyo off the wire.
Keith Bogans – He'll compete for the starting SG spot; however, even if he wins it, the minutes won't be strong. He couldn't do anything on the lowly Bobcats or break the top 150 with a starting role (and 35 mpg) in Houston. We think that's a sign.
JJ Redick – A herniated disc, drunken driving charges, and now a soft-tissue tear on his foot. Fortunately, the latest setback doesn't appear to be that serious. He'll need 25 mpg to break the top 200 and with Hill healthy and Orlando deep at the 2, we just don't see it given his current place in the rotation.
Trevor Ariza – He's playing behind Hedo and with Bogans also looking for minutes at the 3, Ariza will need to develop his offensive skills for serious minutes to come his way. The defensive stats are solid; however, they're not near enough right now.
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