| Orlando's Impending Off-Season Authored by Howard Mass - February 9, 2007 - 11:10 am
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Over the past couple of months, Magic fans have been through the ups and downs of this team. Unfortunately, when the downs come, the RealGM Orlando Magic message board goes into crisis mode with possible trades and off-season signings this team could make.
There will always be trade suggestions and rumors but there is a lot to the cap space situation that many Magic fans debate and wonder about.
I felt it was time to do some research and put all the speculation to bed.
In this article, the contracts for next season are broken down, the speculation about Pat Garrity’s contract is put to rest and I’ll explain why the Fran Vazquez saga will likely come to an end by the Draft.
The following figures are a rough estimate of the Magic’s payroll for the 2007-2008 season.
Depending on how things turn out, there is the potential to land a go-to guy on offense like Vince Carter, perhaps Rashard Lewis or maybe split up the money and go after some role players like Anderson Varejao to beef up the frontline.
The salary cap is projected to be anywhere from $55 to $57.5 million. You as a fan can do the math and develop your own scenarios based on the information in this piece.
Players Under Contract
Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu, Trevor Ariza, Tony Battie, J.J. Redick, Keith Bogans, Carlos Arroyo are estimated to make a combined total of around $31 to $31.5 million next season with a projected salary cap of $55 to $57.5 million.
Keyon Dooling has a player option for next season at about $3.5 million which he is unlikely to opt out of. Remember that if Dooling opts out, he will count on the cap at a much larger amount over $7 million until he is re-signed or renounced. Do not be shocked if Dooling ends up back with the Miami Heat if he does decide to opt out.
Based on contracts for second-round picks, James Augustine probably has a partially guaranteed deal for next season at the second-year minimum of 687,000. My guess is it is possible the Magic will opt out of that if dollars are tight but that seems unlikely.
That above $31-$31.5 million figure could change if Dooling does not opt out. Augustine’s salary does not change the figure much one way or another.
The Truth about Pat Garrity’s Contract
Now, we get to the biggest question about the cap space. What is the truth about Pat Garrity’s contract?
When the subject of the Orlando Magic’s possible cap space for the summer of 2007 comes up, there is always confusion about the status of Pat Garrity’s contract for next year. Some say it expires, others say he can opt out, while a few say the Magic have a team option.
The Truth: Pat Garrity has an early-termination option in his contract. Early-termination options (ETO’s) can only be options for the player.
It is highly doubtful that Garrity will terminate the final year of the deal thus he is on the books for close to $4 million next season.
Sources have told me since last summer that the Magic would like to move him.
For those of you hoping for a deal though, don’t bet on it.
Amongst the most interested are the Denver Nuggets who want to cut payroll. A few other teams including the Dallas Mavericks have inquired but even if the Magic could move Garrity, it will be extremely difficult to get an expiring contract in return and would likely mean giving up a future first-round pick unless Garrity hits his stride again. It would also be likely the Magic would have to throw in $3 million in cash to cover the final year of the contract.
If things did not sound difficult enough, Garrity has a Trade kicker that will add around $500,000 to the final year of his contract in the event that he is traded.
The hardest part is unless Garrity can get open shots, there is sadly not a lot of use for him and it is hard to see him on the bench after years of contributions.
Do not expect a deal unless it is part of a package and that seems unlikely but not out of the question. A buyout this summer is an option but it would likely only net the Magic a small amount of his salary back ($300,000 to $500,000) as Garrity is unlikely to give up much if anything of his salary.
Add $4 million to the above total and the payroll for the 2007-2008 season is around $35 million.
Vazquez Saga Could End Soon
Many Magic fans including myself believe 2005 first-round draft pick Fran Vazquez is never going to come to the NBA.
That might officially become a done deal soon at least in terms of playing for the Magic.
When the off-season starts, the rookie salary for the 11th pick in this year’s draft will count on the Magic’s cap at about $1.6 million (120 percent of scale). They could trade or renounce him to get that money off of the cap. If used in a trade, his salary would count nothing in the deal. This would make it real easy to move him for a draft pick if a team wants to take a high risk, low reward deal on him. Do not expect the Magic to get more than a low future first (could be pushing it) or a second-round pick or two for him straight up though. Most teams do not expect him to come over for a while if ever. Another scenario is him being sent elsewhere in a package at the Trading Deadline.
Otis Smith’s trip to see Vazquez a few weeks back was probably to make sure he is not coming over anytime soon so Smith could go ahead with a trade. After all the saga the selection of Vazquez has caused this team, it is doubtful they will let him eat up cap space that could go to a free agent that could really help this team.
Translation: Fran Vazquez’s rights will not be owned by the Magic past draft night.
Free Agents/Decisions
The Orlando Magic also have some decisions to make before the amount of their cap space is determined. You play the GM and do your own scenarios.
1) If the Magic are going to have cap space, decisions need to be made about the status of Grant Hill and Darko Milicic. Both will count around $17.7 and $12.5 million on the cap respectively until they are re-signed or renounced.
Grant Hill has indicated he would like to play next season but a lot depends on his injury situation and how much money the Magic are willing to commit to him.
Darko Milicic has been playing well lately but is he the right player to play alongside Dwight Howard? The potential is there but a decision is going to have to be made. Even if Grant Hill is renounced, a big part of the cap figure will be how much Milicic re-signs for along with his starting salary.
Milicic and his agent could very well hold up signings of other free agents because of his cap hold and the fact the Magic will not let him walk for nothing. So, hopefully a deal would be worked out quickly here.
There is a possibility they could save the cap space for a year from this summer but that gets complicated and is a story for another time. It would likely mean letting Darko Milicic walk and the Magic not using much of their cap space this summer.
It is doubtful the Magic will hold off though.
2) Travis Diener only will have a cap hold of just under $1 million dollars making a decision on him a little easier and not one that necessarily has to be made right away.. While some teams might be hesitant to offer Diener knowing the Magic could match, do not be surprised if Diener and his agent try to force their way out of here.
I do not believe Diener wants to leave. However, it has to be hard to want to return as a #3 point guard who likely would ride the inactive list versus getting a chance to play elsewhere.
Diener is a restricted free agent and since the Magic are likely to have cap space, they will be able to offer up to the Mid-Level exception to keep Diener.
No team will give Diener that kind of money but Otis Smith might prefer to accommodate Diener rather than let him take a one-year tender and be disgruntled and untradeable under NBA rules for a year.
This leads me to believe the Magic are likely and probably will have to make a decision between Carlos Arroyo and Travis Diener by the summer.
On a side note, if you were counting that is 14 players with Bo Outlaw the remaining player. Outlaw is a free agent and will count a small amount on the cap until he is re-signed or renounced.
That’s the situation for all 15 players.
Get a First?
Some trade rumors have the Magic trying to acquire a 2007 first-round pick. As everyone knows, the Magic traded their first-round pick (Top-5 protected) to Detroit last February for Darko Milicic and Carlos Arroyo.
If the Magic acquire a first, the salary for the pick would count on the cap and cut into the cap space.
It would also be likely a move up would cost the Magic a key player which could make the deal for the Magic unappealing.
This means we will all have to wait till the second round of the draft where the Magic will have three picks (Own, Cleveland and Sacramento)
Final Thoughts
I do hope that I have laid out the cap situation for each and every Magic fan on the Internet. Many of you will speculate about this up until the off-season.
However, despite this team’s up and down ways, the last time I checked there were over two months left in the regular season. A lot can happen over that time and even if this team is a 8th seed, I will crave every minute of the playoffs because I love and believe in this team.
If there is anyone who does want to be in the lottery and pray the pick falls in the top-5, remember that if it does not get in that threshold, the pick goes to the Detroit Pistons via the Darko Milicic deal. Think of Milicic has the Magic’s first-round pick this year.
So, when the February 22nd Trading Deadline passes, let’s all make a commitment to focus on the final two months of this season and what we hope will be a great two months up against a tough schedule.
This might be more of a transition year but in all places in life, you have to start somewhere and for the Magic, the playoffs are that start to one day becoming NBA World Champions.
If anyone has any questions or comments about this article, feel free to send me a PM via our message boards or E-Mail me at howard.mass@realgm.com |
