| Changes Coming For the Magic Authored by Howard Mass - May 6, 2007 - 3:24 am
After a season of ups and downs for that ended in a first-round sweep at the hands of the Detroit Pistons, the Orlando Magic are in for an offseason of changes. These changes could involve a new head coach, free agent signings and some possible deals to change up the team. Here is the latest of what I am hearing on the status of head coach Brian Hill, the team’s capspace and something that no one is talking about that will help the Magic’s trade situation this offseason.
Brian Hill's Status
Ever since the middle of the season, the fate of Brian Hill as head coach has been the hottest topic amongst Magic fans. This past week, it was reported in the Orlando Sentinel that Brian Hill’s job was in jeopardy. Despite GM Otis Smith’s assurances, we all knew something could happen and apparently Brian Hill will not return as head coach next season.
While I was doing my exams last week, I received some tips from a few sources that said Brian Hill will not return as head coach next season. Instead, they will try to work out a role in the front office for him. What that role would be is undetermined as this time.
I want to point out that this scenario does not take a rocket scientist to figure out even without sources. There was no way the Magic were going to fire Hill in the middle of the season and have a messy divorce like they did 10 years ago. It only makes sense to put a guy loved in the community in the front office rather than just dismissing him again. The question is what role Hill gets and that is unknown right now.
Another question is who might replace Hill as head coach. The Magic will try to land a solid coach and there are many possibilities although it would seem a coach like a Rick Adelman who is experienced and has taken teams deep in the playoffs would be a canadiate. There are probably others like Stan Van Gundy that are probably being considered but I would not be surprised to see the Magic pull off someone out of left field. I am not really going to speculate any further but I would expect a new coach to be announced around the same time as Brian Hill’s potential move to the front office. This is if Brian Hill is indeed not back as head coach which seems like the more likely scenario right now. On the possible replacement, I am willing to trust General Manager Otis Smith’s judgement on his first coaching hire.
Cap Space
For next season, the Magic have 8 players under contract Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu, Trevor Ariza, Tony Battie, J.J. Redick, Carlos Arroyo and Keith Bogans. Together they make a combined salary of around $31 million.
Keyon Dooling and Pat Garrity are unlikely to opt out of their contracts so another $7.5 million is added to the above total making the Magic’s payroll for the 2007-2008 season around $38.5 million.
James Augustine is also under contract but is likely not fully guaranteed meaning he could get cut after summer league for a small fraction of his salary. I will note he will have to earn a spot on the team this time against Marcin Gorcat and likely a big man the Magic draft in the second round of this year’s draft. At the most though, this team’s payroll is about $39 million going into next season.
The projected salary cap has been estimated anywhere from $54 to $58 million. Once that exact number is determined, The Magic will know how much capspace they could possibily have.
Of course, the capspace will not be fully determined until something is worked out with restricted free agent forward Darko Milicic.
Milicic’s playoff performance definitely helped his value. The question will be whether a team with capspace makes him a big offer. If not, contract talks could go more smoothly. The key to the deal is what Darko Milicic gets for a starting salary.
With Grant Hill unlikely to be re-signed for more than the minimum, how much Darko Milicic’s re-signs for and the determined salary cap are going to play a huge impact on what the Magic do this offseason.
Expiring Contracts Factor
When I hear about offseason scenarios, one thing no one mentions is that if a sign and trade deal is needed to acquire a player and the Magic are short on capspace, they have an option that can be more attractive to teams that others don’t have.
That option is using expiring contracts in trades.
Next season, Carlos Arroyo, Pat Garrity (trade kicker) and Keyon Dooling will all have expiring contracts. Combined they will be worth around $11.5 million.
Now, it will be tougher to move Garrity with that trade kicker which will get him a slight raise with some money paid to him when the deal is made but he still is an expiring contract that will be the next best thing other than a Traded Player Exception.
Still, if after Darko Milicic re-signs, there is only $5-6 million in capspace, some of those contracts could be used with the capspace to land a player via trade. Combine some of those deals with a future first-round pick and a deal might be able to be made. Just some food for thought.
I’ll have some trade scenarios as the offseason progresses.
Final Thoughts
In some of the E-Mails that I receive, I am always asked how I get my information and about my knowledge. The truth is throughout my seven plus years here at RealGM, I have been lucky to come across some great people and make some contacts that have E-Mailed me with information. While it helps to have sources, a lot of things you can figure out on your own just by having knowledge of the league.
Back when I was in high school and before RealGM, I kept a roster book with salaries that I compiled from newspapers. That summer, the Magic needed a point guard and wanted to move Dennis Scott. So, I looked in my book an said, well maybe they could move Scott to Dallas for Derek Harper and Ed O’Bannon. Low and behold, a few months deal that exact deal went down.
This showed me what a fan could think up if they have the knowledge and a little information. Today, I am lucky like many basketball fans not to have to do the math. Thanks to Ryan Hoak and Michael Benbow, basketball fans have a thing called the Trade Checker to check trade scenarios.
Now, there are people all over the internet who claim to have sources or know it all. I honestly do not check up on other people but I will say this. If you know the league well and have followed it for a while, things are easier to figure out. For example, the Brian Hill situation, everyone knows the Magic do not want coach Hill’s stint to end like last time so it’s logical that he would be offered a front office position.
Also, when there are trade rumors all you got to do is use the Trade Checker to help yourself come up with scenarios. I use it often but never try to pass it off as a trade rumor. One promise I’ll always keep is that I will never pass something off as from a source unless I have one telling me something. This week, my sources indicated to me that Brian Hill will not return as head coach. That is the truth. There is always the possibility that Hill returns as much but just with common sense, that does not seem likely.
Let’s say the Magic bring coach Brian Hill back and the offense does not change, you think they want to fire him in the middle of the season again and have speculation the entire season on who will be the next head coach? I honesty do not think so. That’s why a coaching change is likely here and not one source that I asked believed that Brian Hill will be back as head coach.
I just hope the Magic bring this situation to a close quickly at least on Hill’s status. Dragging this out over two weeks would be unprofessional and unfair to Brian Hill. If coach Hill is not coming back as head coach, work out a front office position now. My feeling is the Magic want to hire a coach first and announce it the day or day after/if Brian Hill officially moves into the Front Office. Still, for the sake of Brian Hill, please do not leave him hanging.
Contact
If you have any questions about this article or anything Magic related, send me an E-Mail howard.mass@realgm.com I promise to respond to ALL E-Mails within 48 hours.
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