| Draft Bores, Free Agency Will Roar Authored by Howard Mass - June 30, 2007 - 4:04 am
| Current Featured Columns | | Howard's Role In The Gold For the first time in eight years, there won't be any talk of failure, or the world catching up, only praises for the Olympic champions – that is unless your name is Dwight Howard.
Grading The Deal: Williams To Cleveland In Three-WayMo Williams just barely outperformed the first year of his new contract, but he gives Cleveland's offense a few more teeth.
 |
Is It Time To Worry?
Training camp is less than four weeks away, and the Pacers still haven't signed Danny Granger to an extension or gotten rid of Jamaal Tinsley.
|
 |
Auditing Miami's 2007-08 Season
The Heat came out of the season in an immediately better situation to compete, turning Shaq into Shawn Marion and a 15-67 record into Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers.
|
 |
The Lakers Need More Gas
Maybe it’s Pau’s blood. Whatever it is, something happens when he switches his NBA jersey for a national one. It somehow evokes an emotion and a confidence that an NBA paycheck doesn’t seem to be to able to ignite.
|
|
More from RealGM's Columnists
|
| |
The Orlando Magic will embark on yet another exciting ride through free agency starting on July 1. On this day, the Magic can begin chatting with free agents and getting verbal commitments but cannot formally sign anyone to a contract until July 11. This could set us fans on another wild ride in what has already been a crazy offseason with the coaching fiasco.
Later in this piece, I have a small review and an interesting theory of what was the most boring Draft Night in team history as predicted in my Draft Preview. Since it was so boring, it probably would interest more people if I jump to the free agency part first.
Before I say anything else, here is an updated version of the Magic’s cap situation for this offseason.
Under Contract
Dwight Howard
Jameer Nelson
Trevor Ariza
Hedo Turkoglu
Tony Battie
J.J. Redick
Keyon Dooling
Carlos Arroyo
Keith Bogans
Pat Garrity
James Augustine
Note: Sources tell me Augustine’s deal is partially guaranteed for next season but the Magic need to make a call around the end of next month or it becomes fully guaranteed at the minimum. If Augustine is let go and it is assumed he will not be, it would bring the total team salary down to around $38.8 million.
Total Payroll: $39.2 million
Projected Salary Cap: $55.5 million.
Total Potential Capspace: $16.3 million
Fran Vazquez Counts On the Salary Cap
A few months back, I wrote an article that had a section about 2005 1st round pick Fran Vazquez counting on the Magic’s salary cap during the offseason. No one in the media is talking about this but Vazquez does indeed count on the salary cap during the offseason. Here is an article in the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement from the NBA Player’s Association website that backs up my story.
http://www.nbpa.com/cba_articles/article-VII_4.php
“In the event that a First Round Pick signs with a non-NBA team, the player’s applicable Rookie Scale Amount shall be excluded from the Team Salary of the Team that holds his draft rights, beginning on the date he signs such non-NBA contract or the first day of the Regular Season, whichever is later, and shall be included again in his Team’s Team Salary at the applicable Rookie Scale Amount on the following July 1 or the date the player’s contract ends (or the player is released from his non-NBA contractual obligations), whichever is earlier, unless the Team renounces its exclusive rights to the player in accordance with Article X, Section 4(f). If, after such following July 1, or any subsequent July 1, the player signs another, or remains under, contract with a non-NBA team, the player’s applicable Rookie Scale Amount will again be excluded from Team Salary beginning on the date of the contract signing or the first day of the Regular Season commencing after such July 1, whichever is later, and will again be included in Team Salary at the applicable Rookie Scale Amount on the following July 1 or the date the player’s contract ends (or the player is released from his non-NBA contractual obligations), whichever is earlier, unless the Team renounces its exclusive rights to the player in accordance with Article X, Section 4(f).”
To sum it up, Vazquez does not count against the salary cap during the regular season through July 1. However, he does count on the cap like an unsigned first-round pick in this year’s draft would from July 1 until the first day of the regular season.
Fran Vazquez will count 100 percent of the first-year rookie scale salary for the 11th pick in this year’s draft which for this year is $1,605,900 until he is either signed by the Magic, traded or renounced.
It is unlikely Vazquez will play in Orlando until at least 2009 because of his buyout clause in his overseas contract. So, Otis Smith might have to make a decision to deal Vazquez’s rights or perhaps send them to Seattle in a sign and trade deal for free agent Rashard Lewis.
Vazquez’s rights will not count as any money in a deal so the Magic would not have to worry about matching up salaries to deal his rights.
Total Team Salary: $40.8 million
Projected Salary Cap: $55.5 million
Total Potential Capspace: $14.7 million
Free Agents
Before the Magic’s capspace will be determined, they have to make some decisions on their own free agents.
Darko Milicic
Grant Hill
Travis Diener
Bo Outlaw
To make a long story short, the Magic will have $14.7 to $16.5 million in capspace depending on what they do with James Augustine and Fran Vazquez.
Note: Since the Magic will have more capspace than the value of whatever this year’s Mid-Level Exception will be, they will lose it once they go under above it’s value. Since the Magic will probably go under the cap by at least $7 million dollars, they surely will not have their MLE this year.
Each of the 4 Magic free agents has a caphold based on their 2006-2007 salary. Until the player is resigned or renounced, they count on the cap. Darko Milicic, Travis Diener and former Magic player Mario Kasun, who was never renounced last year, are all restricted free agents meaning the Magic can match any offer another team gives them. It is very possible though that Diener and Kasun will eventually be renounced.
The cap holds for Darko Milicic and Grant Hill are each almost or above the projected capspace. This means a resolution has to come on both players before the Magic can do anything else.
Travis Diener’s cap hold is a little under a million dollars. The Magic have made him and Milicic qualifying offers making them restricted free agents. They might try to sign and trade him for a second round pick. However, with every dollar needed to make a run at Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis or Gerald Wallace, Diener could be a cap casualty who goes on to flourish elsewhere. Bo Outlaw will be renounced and might not return to the organization as a player but could be a backup option if other plans to upgrade the frontcourt fail.
Grant Hill will probably be renounced as the Magic will not pay him more than the minimum to return. His deal would be signed after Milicic is re-signed and the Magic use their other capspace via a free agent signing or a sign and trade. Rumor has it though that he wants to head to a contender. My guess is he wants to play one season in Phoenix or San Antonio and then retire.
Darko Milicic’s starting salary is the key to the capspace. Depending on his starting salary which should start around $7 or $8 million, subject that from the above totals and the Magic are looking at around $7 to $9 million in capspace.
One worry I have is the Magic and Milicic agreeing on a deal and then another team coming in and offers more to complicate matters for the Magic. It is unlikely this would happen as the teams with capspace are probably unlikely to go after Milicic. It also does not hurt that Milicic will be a restricted free agent and they have made it known they will match any offer for him. The worry though is another team jacking up their offer to lower the Magic’s capspace.
Of the teams with capspace, Charlotte might make a run at Milicic but Memphis has been cheap with their payroll and Milwaukee already has a bigman in Andrew Bogut and now Yi Jianlian. I have a funny feeling about Charlotte though but expect Milicic to re-sign. That time from July 1 to July 11 will be nerve-racking with all of us just waiting for that signing date to hit and hoping nothing goes wrong. After all, the Magic have had two head coaches in a smaller span this offseason.
Projected Capspace after Darko Milicic re-signs.
$7 to $9 million.
Free Agent Targets
As everyone knows, the Magic have a short list of free agents they are targeting.
The Maximum starting salaries for Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis will be $16.650 million if the $55.5 million projected salary cap holds true.
For Gerald Wallace, it will be a little under $13.875 million.
Now, with that $7 to $9 million figure above depending on what happens with Fran Vazquez and James Augustine obviously means the Magic cannot sign any of these free agents outright for the max unless they renounce Darko Milicic which is unlikely. A sign and trade deal would likely be needed to make a deal happen.
Chauncey Billups is unlikely to leave Detroit and would cost the ten year max which would be a lot more and likely out of the Magic's range. While I have hopes Vince Carter will want to return to his Central Florida roots, that is unlikely despite what a big splash it would make.
Gerald Wallace is also an option but a backup one to Rashard Lewis and probably not worth a maximum salary deal.
Rashard Lewis seems the likely target here. Despite Seattle’s Draft Night acquisitions of Jeff Green and Kevin Durant, Lewis probably wants out of the uncertainty of the Sonics feature in Seattle and Orlando would be a nice young team in a weak conference to bolt for.
In a possible sign and trade deal, the Magic would almost certainly have to send out a first-round draft pick or two along with Hedo Turkoglu who Seattle could possibily move again or perhaps an expiring contract like Pat Garrity with cash to cover most of his salary and trade kicker. Carlos Arroyo could also be trade bait here due to his expiring contract. Fran Vazquez’s rights might be used in this deal but they would not count any value in terms of salaries to match up with Lewis. The Magic would basically be looking to cover a $6 to $9 million gap based on the above figures in this deal between the capspace and Lewis’ maximum salary with players’ salaries making up the difference.
The trade rules allow the difference between team salaries going in and out to be within 125 percent and $100,000 of each other. This means the Magic could use their $7 to $9 million in capspace while sending out just an expiring contract like Pat Garrity to get close to Lewis' maximum salary.
With the large amount of salaries in the deal and the percentage difference allowed, the Magic could take back over $3 million in extra salary. Seattle would hardly have to pay anything in salary since the Magic would also likely send them the NBA maximum $3 million in cash to help cover Garrity's salary and trade kicker. Things might not end up exactly at $16.650 million but it can get close enough if the Magic can get Milicic at a starting salary of around $7 million and move Vazquez. In the end, if Lewis really wants to come here as the reports and my sources state, it can happen but it will likely cost the Magic a first round pick or two along with a player and/or expiring contract with cash to get their man.
Final Thoughts: Draft Recap
Thursday evening we all got the pleasure of watching the worst draft night in Orlando Magic history. The day started with a deal that sent away the 54th pick to Houston for cash. It was the second straight year the Magic have sold a second round pick to Houston for cash.
Then, as we waited almost four hours for that #44th selection to appear, the player I wanted and the one general manager Otis Smith later said he would have consider at #44 went off the board to Minnesota at #42. Chris Richard was my favorite bigman in this second round with his toughness and defense down low in the post. He was buried on Florida’s bench behind lottery picks Al Hortford and Joakim Noah. If anyone saw the job he did on #1 overall pick Greg Oden in the national Championship game, you know this kid is a player. Minnesota got a steal here. At least, the Magic only play Minnesota twice a year so I will not think so much about this near miss and if Otis Smith, who would have been on the fence at this pick in terms of taking Richard, would have pulled that trigger.
Anyway, when #44 came up, the guys on the radio said the Magic were going to take Reyshawn Terry and deal his rights to Dallas for cash and #60. My head spun and I shook my head thinking the Magic would take a big stiff. As I waited for that last overall pick, I saw two point guards who I liked in Florida’a Taurean Green and Nevada’s Roman Sessions go off the board. It is a shame as both could have been players that could have taken Travis Diener’s spot on the Inactive list and possibily developed into decent players. Then again, Travis Diener could not do much during his two years on the list either.
Finally, the Magic’s (Dallas’) pick came and a Serbian bigman named Milovan Rakovic was taken. In the highlights, it showed that he was a banger but not much else. At first I thought the Magic would move him to another team for cash but they did not. Then, my good friend and retired RealGM Orlando Magic moderator Davor Nincic (ORL) made an interesting observation on our message board.
Darko Milicic and Milovan Rakovic both share the same agent Marc Cornstein and played together a few years back on the 2001 under 16 team in Serbia. Davor speculated that maybe this was a favor or kind gesture to Cornstein and/or Milicic before the contract talks with Milicic. For the record, Rakovic is a tough player which the Magic could use and would not mind him coming over some day if he can develop more skills as he can really knock opposing players on their tails. If he had a consistent jump shot or post game, he could give 8 minutes a game and be a good post defender without being a liability on offense. Whether he ever comes over or not, is up in the air at best but his chances are probably better than Rashard Griffith and/or Roman Van De Hare.
This draft though was a good one for the Magic if one looks past Otis Smith’s decision not to bring in a young player to stash at the end of the bench.
After all, the Magic did have some nice selections.
With the 15th pick, the Orlando Magic select Darko Milicic.
In this draft, Milicic would have gone a lot higher and is a steal at #15.
With the 39th pick, the Orlando Magic select head coach Stan Van Gundy.
This is the pick Miami got for letting Van Gundy out of his consulting contract with the Miami Heat. Despite the anger we all had towards Pat Riley, this pick turned out to be a future second round pick. Considering what the Magic did with their second round picks, losing this pick does not matter much unless Otis Smith was going to select Chris Richard. It was still nicer to get a head coach in the top one-third of the league who is going to make a huge difference here in Orlando next season.
With the 60th pick, the Orlando Magic select Milovan Rakovic.
This pick could have been a gesture to Marc Cornstein and/or Darko Milicic but you know what, I like this kid. He is tough and gives us Magic fans another overseas player to follow next season.
When you think about it, this draft turned out pretty good but the real fun starts on July 1. If the Magic can re-sign Darko Milicic, snag Rashard Lewis via a sign and trade and perhaps trade an expiring contract for a backup bigman to play behind Dwight Howard, Darko Milicic and Tony Battie, it will turn out to be a great summer and another step in the right direction towards that championship parade in Downtown Orlando.
Contact
If you have a question or comment about this article, feel free to contact me howard@realgm.com
Special thanks to Matthew Gordon and RealGM Orlando Magic moderators devin3807 and damo{23} for helping me with the edits.
|
