| Draft Will Help Magic With Tax Authored by Howard Mass - June 26, 2008 - 4:42 am
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The Magic are back to those days of the mid-90’s when they were a very good team and had to wait to see what fell to them. These days are bound to continue well into the future and were in for the first of many of those this year.
As the Magic head into tonight’s draft, they have some needs to address at shooting guard, size upfront and at point guard. If they can find a good player or two, it will help them greatly in terms of improving and maintaining a gap between their payroll and the dreaded luxury tax.
Here is where the roster stands at the moment.
Under Contract
Dwight Howard
Hedo Turkoglu
Rashard Lewis
Jameer Nelson
Tony Battie
Keith Bogans
Brian Cook
J.J. Redick
Marcin Gortat
Note: Marcin Gorcat’s contract for next season is not fully guaranteed. He is expected to be back and after July, his contract will become completely guaranteed.
Total: $58.7 million
Free Agents
Keyon Dooling
Maurice Evans
Free Agents Unlikely To Return
Carlos Arroyo, Adonal Foyle, Pat Garrity, James Augustine
Who Should the Magic Take at #22"
When one takes a look at the roster, the needs that pop out at you are:
1) Frontcourt Depth
2) Shooting Guard
3) Point Guard
This Draft does have quite a few good bigman like Marresse Speights of Florida, Jason Thompson of Rider, J.J. Hickson of N.C. State, Robin Lopez of Stanford and Darrell Arthur. There are also some nice second round options like Joey Dorsey of Memphis, D.J. White of Indiana Richard Hendrix of Alamaba and foreign player Nathan Jawai.
At Shooting guard, there are players including the rumored favorite of Magic General Manager Otis Smith Courtney of Western Kentucky, Chris Douglas-Roberts of Memphis and Brandon Rush of Kansas.
Point guard is a weak spot overall in this Draft but Mario Chalmers of Kansas could be a decent pick at #22 and good players likely to be available in the second round like Kyle Weaver of Washington State and George Hill of IUPUI.
At the moment, the Magic have only one pick but sources strongly indicate to me that the rumors of Orlando acquiring a second round pick are true and that they likely will grab one.
Everyone has been through the scouting reports and mock drafts the Magic likely want someone who can step in and play right away if needed even though it is rare for rookies to do so.
All of my sources have told me guard Courtney Lee is at the top of the Magic’s board. Many either believe this to be true or as RealGM.com’s Executive Editor Chris Reina believes “there is some smoke-screening going on”.
Two years ago, Otis Smith did not dance around the J.J. Redick rumors so I believe Lee is atop their board unless a bigman that the front office likes unexpectedly drops to them.
In the end, I do think Lee will end up being the pick but if they do not go Lee or he is not there at #22, look for Otis Smith to grab a bigman to give this team some depth upfront. Lee can contribute right away and was reportedly very impressive in workouts with his athleticism and spot up shots. He also has a great attitude. Even if Lee does not start or even gets buried on the bench like J.J. Redick has, my feeling is he can step in when needed and that is critical. It is important to point out that getting Lee (6-5) will not help the Magic get the bigger guards that they need which is a concern but perhaps not a huge one If Lee can contribute. I believe he is the pick here.
With a possible second round pick, a huge favorite according my sources is Joey Dorsey of Memphis. This kid is a banger and a leader who would be a nice addition to the roster although he would likely be in the James Augustine role. This could be the Magic’s target along with a few others mentioned above in the forwards section. Even if the Magic go big in the first round, they could do it here again or even go after a point guard like George Hill of IUPHI.
Luxury Tax Space
If the Magic select two good players, it also helps luxury tax wise for next season. While it is unclear whether or not the Magic will go over especially with Hedo Turkoglu in line $4-5 million raise next summer, both of these picks will be low cost. The 22nd pick and the second round pick would cost around $1.5-$1.75 million on the cap next year.
This is critical because the Magic already have 9 players under contract for $58.7 million with the projected threshold around $70.5 million. If Keyon Dooling and Maurice Evans are resigned, it is likely will have a starting salary around $4-$5 million and Evans will start at about $3 million. That leaves a gap of about $4 or $5 million for the four other spots on the roster unless Dooling or Evans is not returning. This is part of the reason they want to grab a second round pick so they can bring a young big in on the cheap. It will be interesting to see how much money Orlando will spend this summer but even if they are going to exceed the luxury tax, at least grabbing a second rounder will help curb spending a bit.
Final Thoughts
I honestly believe this draft is a little overhyped. There is a lot of “Potential”amongst the players in this class but my feeling is this is mostly a role player draft. Draft Night is the most exciting night of the year for me and unlike fans of other teams and some Magicfans, I feel safe with Otis Smith running the show. Many fans were skeptical when he traded Trevor Ariza to the Los Angeles Lakers for Brian Cook and Maurice Evans. It was hard to tell a Laker fan of the trade and have them say how badly my team got ripped. This did not happen though and Otis Smith made the fearless decision to trade a popular player and good young talent for two players who better fit in with this team.
This is why I feel he will come through and pick the right player (s) for this team. Will the player (s) step in and start next year? Odds are against it. Will they play more than garbage minutes? Maybe not. However, I am confident he will do the best he can to make those last two answers a yes. In Otis Smith I trust. It should be a fun night.
Questions/Comments
If you have any questions or comments regarding this article, feel free to contact me howard@realgm.com
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