| $10 Million For Five Players? Authored by Howard Mass - July 1, 2008 - 2:08 am
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While the Magic ended their season on a down note, they did accomplish just about all of their goals this season with the 50 wins and the first-round victory over Toronto being a big one. The big problem though was a lackluster performance against the Detroit Pistons for the second year in a row.
Next season, the Magic are going to have even higher expectations as in at least the Eastern Conference Finals and possibly to knock off the World Champion Boston Celtics to go to the NBA Finals. To do that though, General Manager Otis Smith is going to need to make some changes to this team in free agency.
This team needs a few things in free agency. The return of forward Tony Battie who missed all of last season with a torn rotator cuff will be a huge help upfront but the Magic still need to bring in another tough guy on the frontline who can give 8-20 minutes when needed. They also need a bigger shooting guard, another option at the point and this could come with any of the three needs, The Magic need a guy who can light a fire under them.
There are many fans that want General Manager Otis Smith and his staff to go after free agents like Clippers free agent and former Magic player Corey Maggette, Spurs forward Kurt Thomas, Denver forward Eduardo Najera, Bulls guard Chris Duhon and Warriors swingman Mickael Pietrus.
The Magic can definitely go after any of these guys but there is a big question that goes with that.
Are the Magic willing to exceed the NBA’s luxury tax? There has been speculation both ways on the issue but regardless of what they decide to do, the Magic will be careful with their spending when they get around that threshold as they will this offseason. If they exceed that threshold, they will have to pay one dollar for every dollar they exceed it. Given the team’s market size and the money they are putting into the new arena, it is definitely question if they will go that route although it is possible.
If not, The Magic will have about $10 million to sign 5 players.
Here is a look at the current contract situation of the Orlando Magic for next season.
Under Contract (10 players)
Dwight Howard
Hedo Turkoglu
Rashard Lewis
Jameer Nelson
Tony Battie
Keith Bogans
Brian Cook
J.J. Redick
Marcin Gortat
Courtney Lee
Notes
Keith Bogans also has a player option but is not expected to opt out of his contract.
Marcin Gorcat’s contract for next season is not fully guaranteed. He is expected to be back and after July, his contract will become completely guaranteed.
Courtney Lee is being counted as if he will get the standard 120 percent of the salary scale for rookie deals.
Total: About $60 million.
Free Agents (6 players)
Keyon Dooling
Maurice Evans
Carlos Arroyo
Adonal Foyle
Pat Garrity
James Augustine (RFA)
Note: James Augustine is a restricted free agent. The Magic can match any offer he receives. It is unlikely he will return though.
$10 Million For Five Players?
Unless the Magic plan on paying the luxury tax, they have around $10-$10.5 million between their current payroll and the protected tax threshold of $70-$70.5 million to fill the remaining five roster spots.
It is possible the Magic will go over the projected threshold but that would mean paying one dollar for every dollar they are over the tax. They would also give up their share of the money (About A few million dollars each) that is distributed to the teams that do not go over the tax. In a small market, this could help a team stay in or get close to the black rather than the red.
This does pose an interesting delimma for the Magic. If they re-sign Keyon Dooling and Maurice Evans like has been rumored, the likely starting salaries would be around $4-$4.5 million for Dooling and $3 million for Evans. Re-signing both players puts this team within $2-$3 million of the projected luxury tax threshold and with three roster spots left to fill. This is also assuming Carlos Arroyo, Adonal Foyle, Pat Garrity and James Augustine who are not expected to return.
If that is the case, it could leave the Magic penny pinching for those final three spots.
There are many fans that want the Magic to go after a shooting guard like Clippers free agent and former Magic player Corey Maggette, Spurs forward Kurt Thomas, Denver forward Eduardo Najera, Bulls guard Chris Duhon and Warriors swingman Mickael Pietrus.
This will not likely happen unless Dooling and/or Evans is not resigned or the Magic can dump some salary in a trade. The latter is considered unlikely.
Options
Before I list some options, let me jump to the Magic’s depth chart. A big question next season is whether Tony Battie will start at power forward and slide Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu over to small forward and shooting guard respectively.
Here is the current depth chart under both scenarios with only contracted players and rookie Courtney Lee included.
With Tony Battie in the Starting Lineup
Point guard: Jameer Nelson
Shooting guard: Hedo Turkoglu, Keith Bogans, J.J. Redick, Courtney Lee
Small forward: Rashard Lewis
Power forward: Tony Battie, Brian Cook, Marcin Gortat
Center: Dwight Howard
With Tony Battie Coming off The Bench
Point guard: Jameer Nelson
Shooting guard: Keith Bogans, J.J. Redick, Courtney Lee
Small forward: Hedo Turkoglu
Power forward: Rashard Lewis, Tony Battie, Brian Cook, Marcin Gortat
Center: Dwight Howard,
What Happens
Based on either chart, this team needs to re-sign Keyon Dooling and pick up another point guard with him.
If Maurice Evans is re-signed, you can also bet that one of J.J. Redick or Keith Bogans is likely going to be traded for a big man or another point guard.
Under both charts, one more big man who can play 8-20 minutes and then a 15th man in the James Augustine role is needed. The latter will likely be filled by a training camp invite. Keep me mind some players on there like Battie and Gortat can also play center and Bogans can swing to small forward in small lineups.
My gut feeling says that one of Dooling and Evans will not return next season. It will depend a lot on what they are offered elsewhere though.
In either scenario of re-signing one of Dooling or Evans, the Magic will still have $6-$7 million left to spend. They will have the Mid-Level Exception (Estimated $5.6-$5.8 million) and the Lower Level Exception (Worth $1,910,000).
A likely scenario could be be splitting close to all of the the Mid-Level Exception on two players and signing two more for the league minimum salary.
Some point guards could be available but if Keyon Dooling is re-signed, are they going to want to come here to be the third point guard?
Options include Chris Duhon (Bulls), Jason Williams (Heat), Jannero Pargo (Hornets), and Anthony Johnson (Kings).
At shooting guard, there is a logjam there but it is likely to be cleared up. While I believe General Manager Otis Smith wants J.J. Redick back next season, it is also possible he will be traded and so could Keith Bogans.
However, the Magic do want to get a bigger guard and a guy like Mickael Pietrus (Warriors) would fit the build. If he could stay healthy, he could be a real steal but will he out of the Magic’s price range?
Other options include Jarvis Hayes (Pistons) and possibily Quinton Ross (Clippers).
Corey Maggette could be an option but if he is signed to even the full MLE, Dooling and Evans might be gone. The Magic have two oversized deals in Rashard Lewis and that $7 million plus a year extension Jameer Nelson signed last summer. It is unlikely the Magic can afford to have Maggette unless they exceed the tax or make a deal to free up room (Unlikely).
There are also a few big guys out there on the market. As much as I love Kurt Thomas (Spurs), he is expected to be offered close to a full MLE so he is off the market for Orlando.
Some other names out there include Francisco Elson (Sonics), Malik Allen (Mavericks) Michael Doleac (Timberwolves), and maybe but not likely Eduardo Najera (Nuggets) as he is a little undersized but would be a great addition.
Regardless of what happens, Over these next few years, Orlando is going to curb their spending to fill out their roster They are going to have to find players who can fit their system at lower costs to stay under the luxury and have enough for the $4-6 million bump in Hedo Turkoglu’s salary for next season when he will opt out and sign a new deal. We should be in for a fun ride find out over the next 9 days leading up until the first day free agents can sign July 9 about what is going to happen. It is very possible with only a few teams under the salary and other curbing spending that players could prefer to come to a contender like the Magic. In the meantime, here is hoping Otis Smith can land a few players who can fit this team and be able to re-sign Keyon Dooling. Like I said in my last column, In Otis Smith I trust.
Questions and Comments
If you have a question or comment about this article, I would love to hear from you howard@realgm.com I respond to all E-Mails within 48 hours so it will not be long before I reply.
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